In the first episode of our new podcast Tanker Talk! Freight and Fundamentals, we explore the performance of the VLCC market in the first half of 2025 and our predictions for the future for the market. In the podcast, we dive into the macro and micro dynamics driving today’s market.
Despite geopolitical uncertainties and a slower pace of global oil demand growth, VLCC freight rates have seen a rebound compared to the latter half of 2024. One key driver has been the shift in global trade flows due to the emergence of Brazil as a major export hub to China. As retaliatory tariffs strained US to China crude flows, long-haul volumes from South America helped offset tonnemile losses and supported VLCC utilisation.
In the podcast, we also examine OPEC+ dynamics, from voluntary production cuts to rising output from select members, and how this influenced fixture activity in the Arabian Gulf. We unpack how geopolitical tensions, especially around sanctioned producers like Iran, are reshaping tanker operations and routing preferences.
Lastly, we assess VLCC fleet fundamentals, including low newbuild orders and inflated fleet size due to reduced scrapping, and what they signal for the supply-demand balance going forward.
Tune in to hear why the VLCC market is poised for a potentially strong second half of 2025 and how shifting trade patterns, regional risk, and evolving fleet dynamics are creating a bullish outlook.
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